10 years of last frost dates, East Malling, Kent


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Hi everyone

I've tried to make a last frost guide using 3500 or so daily measurements from a local weather station in East Malling, Kent.

I'm not sure how reasonable it its - what do you think?

I did the following:
  1. Take 10 years of daily minimum temperatures of air (1.25m above ground) and grass (25mm - 50mm above ground).
  2. Categorise them by week number (1 - 52 weeks).
  3. Group all the same weeks together (e.g. daily minimum temperatures of week 5 from 2010 to 2019) and find the 10th percentile temperature of each week.
  4. Graph the data by week
I think doing the percentile thing is trying to make a reasonable worst case scenario: if I plant now, I will be ok according to the past 9 years out of 10 years. I don't know stats though so I'm not sure if this is really the correct way of describing it.

Cheers

Datasets from all Stations https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/dbd451271eb04662beade68da43546e1
East Malling Station Graph data https://mega.nz/file/bIsUXKYD#7OU3GsXdFvjajaT92_hk7kacs7dU1QMLZefVcPf0eqc
 

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  • 2021-01-24 min air temps east malling.png
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zigs

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Cor, looks brilliant (y)

Welcome to the forum from the other end of Kent :)
 
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Well that`s all too clever for me - I have only just learned how to stick my hand out of the window to see if it`s raining - so I think I`d have a nice big lump of fleece ready just in case :smug:
Welcome to the forum anyway :)
 
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