Do I Or Don't I

[skinyea]

My guess it it will be hotter in the summer than in the winter. it will be cooler in the spring and fall than in the summer but not as cold as winter.

Sometimes it will rain. sometimes it will snow. it is weather. everyone talks about how we just broke a hot temp by 1 degree, that has stood for 135 years. which means 135 years ago it was hot.

 

[Susan BBPM]

I watch Radar at work when bad weather hits our area and I have not had to go in.

We depend on Tourist and the River to finance a big part of the area but the river is very low. And if water gets too warm it's going to hurt the Trout.

big rockpile

Aparently this El Nino is supposed to bring WET weather, but we're exceptionally dry. According to historical weather data from the nearest weather station we've had 4 days of rain in 6 weeks. But I'm not sure we've even had that where I live (I live in a little moderate microclimate that doesn't get the extremes of surrounding areas).

Actual raw data shows an average temp increase of a little under 1C over my lifetime. But the big change is in the increase of MAXIMUM temps reached. That's been going on for a while. But what I'm now noticing is the LONG spells of hot weather that aren't normal for us.
Already (still in Spring!) we're hearing talk of hosepipe bans. We hardly ever get hosepipe bans here because it used to be SO wet. Anyway, bottom line is that I'm seeing enough change to be starting to think about how to retain water and make the best possible use of the rain that does fall. But this is complicated by the fact that in winters we can be VERY wet!! It was only a couple of months ago that we were wading about in mud in our garden!

We had an exceptoinally cold winter too. We lost loads of plants from our garden due to cold - many have been here since before we moved in 13 years ago. I'm seein all around dead shrubs in gardens - shrubs and trees that have been there as long as I have. I'm now only buying very cold hardy plants.

You often hear that you shouldn't water regularly as it encourages shallow rooting. Is that true? Or is that a rumour put around to discourage people from using water on their gardens (thus leading to shortages)?

 

[headfullofbees]

Climate: "The meteorological conditions, including temperature, precipitation, and wind, that characteristically prevail in a particular region."

28+ IS very rare where I live. Especially in early June where Max temp is usually around 15C.

I have looked at the recorded temperatures every year since 1988, & 8-12 days with a max temp over 20degC in May & June is the overwhelming norm.
The difference now, is that the Earth's magnetic field is weakening, that this weakens the jet streams, they meander & allow hot weather North & cool weather South.
More cold records are being broken than warm, on a planetary basis

Study blames Earth’s magnetic field flip for climate change, extinctions

Study suggests that one magnetic event caused everything from extinctions to art.

arstechnica.com

Earth's Magnetic Field Is Weakening 10 Times Faster Now

New data from the ESA's Swarm satellite array shows that Earth's magnetic field is weakening, but don't worry, doomsday is not in the forecast.

www.livescience.com

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016JD024890

 

[headfullofbees]

Aparently this El Nino is supposed to bring WET weather, but we're exceptionally dry. According to historical weather data from the nearest weather station we've had 4 days of rain in 6 weeks. But I'm not sure we've even had that where I live (I live in a little moderate microclimate that doesn't get the extremes of surrounding areas).

Actual raw data shows an average temp increase of a little under 1C over my lifetime. But the big change is in the increase of MAXIMUM temps reached. That's been going on for a while. But what I'm now noticing is the LONG spells of hot weather that aren't normal for us.
Already (still in Spring!) we're hearing talk of hosepipe bans. We hardly ever get hosepipe bans here because it used to be SO wet. Anyway, bottom line is that I'm seeing enough change to be starting to think about how to retain water and make the best possible use of the rain that does fall. But this is complicated by the fact that in winters we can be VERY wet!! It was only a couple of months ago that we were wading about in mud in our garden!

We had an exceptoinally cold winter too. We lost loads of plants from our garden due to cold - many have been here since before we moved in 13 years ago. I'm seein all around dead shrubs in gardens - shrubs and trees that have been there as long as I have. I'm now only buying very cold hardy plants.

You often hear that you shouldn't water regularly as it encourages shallow rooting. Is that true? Or is that a rumour put around to discourage people from using water on their gardens (thus leading to shortages)?

Most of the warnings on water usage do not necessarily mean using less water, just using it more efficiently, in which case, water saving is not at the top of the agenda.

The El Nino is just beginning to form, give it a chance.

Like I said, it's much more nuanced than just WET.

As for raw data, it is highly unlikely you have seen any, as it is tortured & re-educated before release.



We were still in La Nina ENSO during winter, but it was, overall, a mild winter.
It affects monsoon levels & areas

 

[big rockpile]

Use to be few years ago we had feet of snow and very cold like below 0F.

I don't know now no rain or snow and warmer.

Just deal with what we are dealt.

I've seen in the past it be too dry for fireworks July 4.

Have many Oaks but they are dieing. Planted some Pines see I have lost couple of them.

Like I say deal with what the Lord gives.

big rockpile

 

[Susan BBPM]

Most of the warnings on water usage do not necessarily mean using less water, just using it more efficiently, in which case, water saving is not at the top of the agenda.

The El Nino is just beginning to form, give it a chance.

Like I said, it's much more nuanced than just WET.

As for raw data, it is highly unlikely you have seen any, as it is tortured & re-educated before release.



We were still in La Nina ENSO during winter, but it was, overall, a mild winter.
It affects monsoon levels & areas

I am specificcally talking about the SEPA early warning alert issued for Ayrshire in early May. We've had just one very brief spell of rain since then so the situation is getting worse daily:

"SEPA says the area is already recording low river levels and dry ground conditions, and the organisation says it cannot rule out water shortages for businesses this summer.

Nathan Critchlow-Watton, SEPA's head of water and planning, said: “Given the mixed weather we’ve experienced in autumn and winter, and the fact that some parts are already at 'early warning' level, what happens next will shape the risk of water scarcity this summer."

“We can’t rule out a repeat of the water shortages businesses experienced last year.

“Taking the right steps now will lower the likelihood of resources reaching a critical level again this summer and SEPA having to suspend licences to protect the water environment.”

*******

Yes, El Nino it is more nuanced than just wet. However, the Global temperatures typically increase during an El Niño episode, and fall during La Niña. El Niño means warmer water spreads further, and stays closer to the surface. This releases more heat into the atmosphere, creating wetter and warmer air.

I mentioned it briefly as one aspect that could be influencing the drastic changes in climate I am witnessing in my area.

********

Winter wasn't mild where I am. As I said, we lost plants to cold in this area that have been fine for 14 years or more.

********
As for raw data - if you don't trust the historical data from the Met (so actual recorded data) then I can't help you! LOL The Met's historical data shows a nearly 1 degree increase in average temperature since the 60's. That's not enough for me to notice though. But I AM seeing more recently changes that are leading me to rethink the way I do things in the garden.

 

[Susan BBPM]

Use to be few years ago we had feet of snow and very cold like below 0F.

I don't know now no rain or snow and warmer.

Just deal with what we are dealt.

I've seen in the past it be too dry for fireworks July 4.

Have many Oaks but they are dieing. Planted some Pines see I have lost couple of them.

Like I say deal with what the Lord gives.

big rockpile

For me the climate is IMPROVING. I'm not really complaining. But it's more about rethinking some of the things I do in the garden. Yes, you can have fleeting changes - a couple of hot years, a dry year, a cold year. But I'm seeinng changes consistent enough to make me rethink thinks. Down to the type of plants I put in the garden (hardiness, draught tolerance).

 

[Heirloom farmer1969]

When I was growing up in the 80s and early 90s in the mountains of eastern Ky, it was like every summer would be a drought. I remember one year, the leaves were dropping from the trees in August cause it was so dry. My ole grandpa would always say he had seen it dryer; give it time it'll turn back wet, he would say. He was right. I have not seen what you could call a drought, probably since 1998. Last July, we had what they called a one-and-a-thousand-year flood. 20 some people lost their lives, plus hundreds and hundreds lost their homes. As my grandpa said, the weather has cycles, so im sure sooner or later, I'll see dry times again.

 

[headfullofbees]

I am specificcally talking about the SEPA early warning alert issued for Ayrshire in early May. We've had just one very brief spell of rain since then so the situation is getting worse daily:

"SEPA says the area is already recording low river levels and dry ground conditions, and the organisation says it cannot rule out water shortages for businesses this summer.

Nathan Critchlow-Watton, SEPA's head of water and planning, said: “Given the mixed weather we’ve experienced in autumn and winter, and the fact that some parts are already at 'early warning' level, what happens next will shape the risk of water scarcity this summer."

“We can’t rule out a repeat of the water shortages businesses experienced last year.

“Taking the right steps now will lower the likelihood of resources reaching a critical level again this summer and SEPA having to suspend licences to protect the water environment.”

*******

Yes, El Nino it is more nuanced than just wet. However, the Global temperatures typically increase during an El Niño episode, and fall during La Niña. El Niño means warmer water spreads further, and stays closer to the surface. This releases more heat into the atmosphere, creating wetter and warmer air.

I mentioned it briefly as one aspect that could be influencing the drastic changes in climate I am witnessing in my area.

********

Winter wasn't mild where I am. As I said, we lost plants to cold in this area that have been fine for 14 years or more.

********
As for raw data - if you don't trust the historical data from the Met (so actual recorded data) then I can't help you! LOL The Met's historical data shows a nearly 1 degree increase in average temperature since the 60's. That's not enough for me to notice though. But I AM seeing more recently changes that are leading me to rethink the way I do things in the garden.

Data "adjustment" & its justification.

Explainer: How data adjustments affect global temperature records - Carbon Brief

Over the past two centuries, the times of day, locations and methods of measuring temperature have all changed dramatically.

www.carbonbrief.org

Note it doesn't tell you how much data infill there is.

Artificial intelligence reconstructs missing climate information - Nature Geoscience

An artificial intelligence-based method may infill gaps in historical temperature data more effectively than conventional techniques. Application of this method reveals a stronger global warming trend between 1850 and 2018 than estimated previously.

www.nature.com

 

[Susan BBPM]

When I was growing up in the 80s and early 90s in the mountains of eastern Ky, it was like every summer would be a drought. I remember one year, the leaves were dropping from the trees in August cause it was so dry. My ole grandpa would always say he had seen it dryer; give it time it'll turn back wet, he would say. He was right. I have not seen what you could call a drought, probably since 1998. Last July, we had what they called a one-and-a-thousand-year flood. 20 some people lost their lives, plus hundreds and hundreds lost their homes. As my grandpa said, the weather has cycles, so im sure sooner or later, I'll see dry times again.

Of course! But you need to adapt your gardening techniques to the ever changing climate to get the best results! And that is what I'm trying to do.

Right now, we're definitely seeing much dryer weather. We still get a lot of rain in winter, but less than we used to. For example, we have a small river/stream at the bottom of the garden. It would burst it's banks and flood every year - at least twice a year. It hasn't happened for 4 or 5 years.

We had professionally installed drainage in our garden as the lawn would always be waterlogged. But now I think we'd be better off overall without that drainage. It's dumping the much needed rain that falls in spring/summer into the river, bypassing our garden completely.

We get more extreme cold in winter - so very cold spells that are killing plants that used to thrive. Yet overall the winters are shorter/milder.

We're constantly breaking records for hottest days in recent years, but more significant to me is the long spells of clear, blue skies - weeks on end.

Of course, you don't know how rapidly things are going to change. But when the climate is consistently refusing to adhere to the pattern that your gardening techniques were designed for you need to re-think things.

 

[Susan BBPM]

Data "adjustment" & its justification.

Explainer: How data adjustments affect global temperature records - Carbon Brief

Over the past two centuries, the times of day, locations and methods of measuring temperature have all changed dramatically.

www.carbonbrief.org

Note it doesn't tell you how much data infill there is.

Artificial intelligence reconstructs missing climate information - Nature Geoscience

An artificial intelligence-based method may infill gaps in historical temperature data more effectively than conventional techniques. Application of this method reveals a stronger global warming trend between 1850 and 2018 than estimated previously.

www.nature.com

I'm looking at raw data. Actual recorded temperatures.

"Estimated data is marked with a * after the value.
Missing data (more than 2 days missing in month) is marked by ---.
Sunshine data taken from an automatic Kipp & Zonen sensor marked with a #, otherwise sunshine data taken from a Campbell Stokes recorder."

 

[big rockpile]

Use to you could count on what the weather was going to do.

Me and my wife work for the Government. We live next to a State Park with Trout Fishing.

Couple times the river has flooded. Interesting you would figure they would know things by now.

They got 3 Boats with Jet Drive. They thought nothing can stop us now. They found fast that the screen would stop up so had to use a Prop Drive.

My wife is trained to figure for FEMA. It is hard to explain to some that if you have Insurance Tuff, if you are Renting Tuff and if you have collected before Tuff.

Went to a meeting and brought up just dealing with what is going on. Man had bunch jump all over me on how bad Climate Change is. Yes that is why we are having this meeting. Wrong it is up to the people to change it back. ???? Ok!

big rockpile